It’s early November and finally time to pull the home sale statistics from our Multiple Listings Service (MLS). I first pull one years stats and then pull stats going back two years and even three years as I try to decipher the trends. This month you can see what I learned by looking back at different timeframes.
Let me preface by saying that this autumn the market is VERY active, at least that is my perception, shared by other realtors I know as well as home and pest inspectors, etc. There seem to be more equity sellers and there seem to be more buyers, including at the upper price ranges. But I always like to go back and look at the market stats to further understand our market and anticipate future trends that can help my clients make the best choices about how to sell or buy a home.
Anyway, what jumped out at me this month was the fact that “Newly Opened Sales” are up 65% over last October at this time from 366 to 603! What a change–I guess it confirms the experiences we have been having, right? (Take a look below, and you can scroll through all the graphs for the latest stats I pulled. Also if you go to the Scribd website you can see previous stat collections I have published. To see all of them you can look through the archives of this blog, which I began in the summer of 2007.)
OK so a 65% increase in Newly Pending Sales is great news, but let’s look at two years history to see if we can learn anything else. Take a look below. From October 2009 through October 2011, Newly Pending Sales are up ‘ONLY” 31%, year over year. Still pretty good but not as mind-blowing!
And I recalled that last autumn was very slow, since the first time home buyers’ tax credit had expired and most people using it had pushed their purchases earlier in the year.
OK, so for those of you who are real data geeks, here is the same collection of stats going back THREE years through October 2009. This time the data are compressed in to quarterly figures, smoothing out some trends. Now when I look at the same Newly Pending Sales, they are only up 3% over 2009–and remember what a shocking time that was. Lots of foreclosure sales. Since then, bank owned pending sales have actually DECLINED 16%, meaning equity sales are accounting for a larger portion of home sales now versus three years ago. Make sure you note the “Months Supply of Inventory” figures in each graph (if you’re still with me.) That is probably the most telling trend. HOUSING INVENTORY is VERY LOW now at the current sales rate, with only 2.8 months supply versus 4.2 in autumn 2009. In 2010 the supply of homes was over six months, indicating the brief lull in sales.
Anyway enjoy reviewing this data. If you want my help in actually buying or selling a home, I can help you to do that too!
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