Wine Country And Horses

Unlike the entry level where inventory keeps growing, and sales are also up sharply this last January, properties priced from $500,000 to $750,000, what is our lower mid-range, are showing declining sales, but also declining inventory at nearly the same rate.   Buyers at this price range are entering jumbo loan territory, and sellers who don’t have to absolutely sell may be taking themselves out of the market.

OK, back to more serious stuff.

Not surprisingly the supply and demand dynamics for Sonoma County real estate vary greatly at various price levels indicating different forces at work.  The next few posts will look at different price ranges and the number of ratified sales (escrows opened) versus the number of new listings.    My broker, Rick Laws, compiles a detailed view of market statistics on a monthly basis which is shared with the Press Democrat newspaper.  Once a month I receive about 20 or 30 reports looking at homes, properties over $1 million dollars, and condominium sales throughout Sonoma County.  These are pulled from sales data from the BAREIS MLS for Sonoma County and supplied via Brokermetrics.   When I need data for a particular area or type of property I can drill down deeper in Brokermetrics but the monthly standard reports give a good statistical overview of the county as a whole.   While we are “in the market” everyday and like to think we can sense trends as they emerge, it helps to have the data to confirm your senses.

The benefit being that it helps us to hopefully deduce some trends for our buyer and seller clients so that we can come up with the best strategy for their real estate needs.

 The low end of our market (under $500,000) is flooded with inventory compared to two years ago.  A year ago new listings were steadily trending upward and buyer activity was nearly level.

However, the number of ratified sales in January (sales that should close in February or March) is up significantly by nearly 50%, an encouraging sign and evidence of the increased buyer activity post holiday and Super Bowl.   The question is how far up will that inventory rise, and will the buyer bump up trend continue so that the lines level out or converge, rather than trend apart as they have in the recent past?

Last night I heard some raucous quacking in several short bursts.  I sleepily wondered if the duck couple that naps by my pool every spring had returned for their sojourn again–one of those wonderful seasonal evidences of the rhythms of the countryside.   As I stepped off a conference call this morning to refill my coffee, sure enough, there they were.   Their nest is nearby and every morning they come for a bath and a snooze on the warm concrete pool deck.  The Papera vineyard is behind the house, 17 acres of old vine zinfandel planted by Charley Papera in 1934, still going strong.   Makes great zin, by the way!   Charley used to own much of this street if not all. It was pasture for cattle and still throws up some good oat hay.  Nice to see the sunshining and the days getting longer.  Not a bad place to be a duck (or a person).