Wine Country And Horses

I enjoy looking at market statistics for the Sonoma County real estate market. As a realtor and full time professional in the market, I look to statistics to confirm or enlighten me vis a vis my own perceptions. I also know the damage that can result from a broad brush focus on statistics. Witness the overall drop in Santa Rosa real estate values year over year of over 15%. (according to Zillow) Not only Zillow but lenders use this sort of data to tar any Santa Rosa home, when the truth is the hardest hit have been the large tracts of entry level inventory that Sonoma County communities such as Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Rohnert Park/Cotati and Windsor have. These communities have the highest preponderance of entry level single-family tract homes which were hardest hit by the sub-prime crisis. All of these communities have some wonderful country properties, vineyard properties and horse farms which will be negatively impacted from a lender’s eye in terms of valuation, relative to equivalent properties in Sebastopol, Healdsburg, Kenwood, Glen Ellen and Sonoma. They could be equally or more scenic, have oodles of wine country juice but are harder hit from a statistical eye.

That is why the laser beam approach is best when you are actively in the market for real estate, or are planning to sell a property for that matter. As my colleague in coastal San Mateo county, Marian Bennett said recently,

“Coastside real estate is very “location specific”. Trends can be information but they are not the whole picture if you are ACTIVELY in the market. In our office alone, 2 homes sold within hours of being listed last week. Part of that may be heading into the spring buying time and/or the seller had the golden triangle (my phrase) of Location, Price, and Presentation. “

Last month I posted an encouraging word about increased January 2008 real estate sales  activity in Sonoma county.  My fellow realtors and I are all noticing a pickup in buyer activity since December.  “People are realizing that their are some “smoking” deals out there and getting down off the fence.  I think 2008 will be the year of the buyer.” said my broker at Coldwell Banker, Rick Laws , on a brief phone call today.  He had just emailed us the first look at February real estate sales data for Sonoma County homes and condominiums and the data verify the gut feel possessed by many of us who as realtors are active in the market on a daily basis.   I am glad because I was feeling a bit like Pollyanna after my last post, given the gloom and doom in the media.  The media spin  generally lags street level reality by weeks or months, which is why timing the real estate market or any market for that matter, is so difficult to do.

 Anyway, newly opened escrows (ratified contracts) are up over 65% this month from last to 363 units.  January saw the largest number of ratifieds of any month since last July 2007, but get this, February’s sales are up to a level not seen since AUTUMN of 2006!  Given seasonal factors, that is a pretty encouraging sign.  January ratifieds were 220 units and December was at 171.

If you are interested in learning about some of the great real estate buys in Sonoma County, whether for single family homes, country property, horse property or investment purposes, please feel free to email me or call.   I will post more in depth data for February when it becomes available in another week or so.