Wine Country And Horses

We ended our tale last week of the prince and princess returning to their San Francisco Bay Area commutes, living separate lives from their two chargers, Seamus (an Irish sporthorse with a 3-day eventing habit, and Rohan, his 2,000 lb Percheron sidekick whose horsely habit we shall hear about a-nonce.)

The prince and princess dreamed someday of being re-united with their steeds on a home in the country that would fit all of them someday–but when would someday ever come? Would they have to wait years until retirement, with Seamus and Rohan growing greyer than they already were? Could they ever have it all, and sooner than later? After all, the prince had an opportunity for a new job up towards the area where the lovely vineyards, valleys and horse properties were–could they find a place to live now and continue to work but keep the horses at home? Should they try to find a castle further away that they could retire to someday, and maybe all visit together for summer vacations and holidays? They didn’t know what to do or think, they just knew they wanted to someday all live happily ever after on a farm with their animals, teaching their subjects (more about that later).

The princess knew she could stand a long commute 2 or 3 days a week, and she could spend much of her time tele-commuting. They owned their own home on the peninsula of the San Francisco Bay–it was worth a pretty penny. Surely there was a new home with room for the prince, princess and the steeds for what they could afford.

She needed to find a wizard or a good witch to advise them how to find their way to their true home. She consulted the Oracle of Google and found a good witch of wine country horse property, sealed her wishes in an email and sent them out to the universe. What happened next was very magical…

(To be continued..)

Supply and Demand

Every month I receive enough market statistics from Rick Laws, my broker, to fill reams of blog posts, even if there are no such things as reams when it comes to blogging. But you and I would be bored if all I wrote about was market stats.

Still this year more than ever, I am intensely interested in viewing trends looking backwards at the stats and comparing that perspective from that of being (literally) in the field live, with clients and other agents.

The chart below is from Brokermetrics and is based upon actual MLS (Multiple Listings Service) data from Bay Area Real Estate Information Services (aka BAREIS). It looks at the number of newly ratified contracts (pending sales not yet closed) versus the number of new listings month to month from July 2006 through July 2008, for all residential sales in Sonoma County, at all price ranges. This gives the most timely view of supply and demand based upon actual sales data, since pending sales take a couple of months to show up as closed sales. I can also slice and dice by price range, housing type and community, but won’t do that all today, promise.

An apparently typical seasonal rise in sales began in January with newly pending sales in March exceeding those of July 2006, leading to a dramatic increase in pending sales this July 2008 versus July 2006. Meanwhile the number of listings is trending slightly upward but is down overall versus two years ago. The vast majority of newly pending sales consists of bank-owned, or REO properties at the lower end of most markets. Month’s supply of inventory is down to six months, and fairly balanced, at the lowest point in quite some time. The market needs to digest these REO’s to achieve some stability, which it appears to be doing. If you have specific questions about Sonoma County real estate market trends, please contact me and I will pull some data for you.

Once upon a time there were a prince and princess living on the peninsula of the San Francisco Bay area, commuting their separate ways to high powered jobs, spending many many dollars each month to board their horses, who lived in yet another direction from the high powered jobs. The horses, Rohan and Seamus, were lonely. They had each other but they only saw the prince and princess on nights and weekends. Even though the prince and princess brought carrots and lots of treats, they missed them the rest of the time. And because of barn politics or zoning issues, or whatever fancies, Seamus and Rohan always seemed to have to move to a new barn. They missed really being able to settle in somewhere. The prince and princess were frustrated–they would spend weekends at events with their horses and then miss them during the week. Since they lived in a small house with a small yard, Seamus, Rohan and the neighbors would not be happy if they brought them home to Belmont!

One weekend the prince and princess drove their son to his first year of college at Humboldt State University. On the way home, they drove through many beautiful valleys and over beautiful hills and mountains, passing vineyards, forests and meadows. This was Sonoma County, only a short drive from the Golden Gate Bridge and San Francisco. They thought “Wouldn’t this be a beautiful place to live happily ever after some day with Seamus and Rohan?.. I guess we will have to wait till we retire. Sigh…..” And they returned home to suburbia and their high-powered jobs.

The prince and princess wondered how they could live happily ever after with Seamus and Rohan all on the same property and keep their high powered jobs? Maybe they didn’t need to wait until someday?

TO BE CONTINUED…..